An Inventory of Health Human Resource Forecasting Models In Canada. An Abbreviated Report Summary

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Author: Cameron Health Strategies Group Limited

Date of publication: March 2009

Summary: With health human resources representing over seventy percent of the health care budget, people remain the greatest asset and the greatest cost of the health care system. The objective of health human resources planning is to equip governments with the information and tools they require to determine how many health professionals are needed to meet the needs of Canadians, both now and in the future. In view of the growing demand for health care services and the expected shortages for health human resources in the near future, it remains critically important that a coordinated, balanced, pan-Canadian health human resources investment strategy be developed and implemented. Its primary aim would be to achieve a stable and optimal health workforce through a cost-effective managed growth strategy.

The capacity to estimate changing population health needs and future gaps in supply and demand in order to be able to develop viable options to improve workforce efficiency and effectiveness is critical to achieving an optimal and stable health workforce. Sound HHR needs-based modelling capacity to forecast HHR requirements is broadly recognized as a priority by provinces, territories and other key stakeholders and is a critical component of effective, evidence-based HHR planning.

In the interests of improving jurisdictions‟ capacity to plan, the F/P/T Advisory Committee on Health Delivery and Human Resources identified the need to conduct an inventory of forecasting models and tools. This study was commissioned to identify the forecasting needs of provinces and territories, to review current model utilization and to identify gaps and priorities.

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